One month in, the Reds picked up on their 2023 second half surge to kick off the new season. The Redlegs own a winning opening month for the first time since 2013. They are third in the competitive NL Central in the exact same pecking order as the previous season finish, just behind the Brewers and Cubs and ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates. Only the AL East also has all 5 teams within 3 games of .500 or better.

Most importantly, the Reds own their first tiebreaker of the year over the Phillies, having won the season series 4-3.

There are bad parts to this young, still-in-the-midst-of-a-rebuild team: the team batting average is down in the cellar, the strikeouts are up, and the pitchers are forcing less groundballs. However, there are also some pretty exciting high sides for the Redlegs: the ERA is way down, the home runs are way up, and the baserunning is electric.

Led by Electric Elly (18), the Reds own the most stolen bases in the Majors with 54. This speed on the base paths, in particular the dominance of De La Cruz, has led to more runs and has had an incredible effect on opposing fielders and catchers. The Reds lead the Majors with .96 opponent errors per game. Routine throws are rushed. Catchers throw to the outfield.

Five of his teammates are perfect on the year, including Tyler Stephenson’s second career stolen bag.

The Reds own the highest secondary average in the league, .311. Secondary average is the more informative batting average that takes into account getting on base, what you do on the bases and how many bases you take each at-bat. It is calculated using the following formula: (TB – H + BB + SB – CS) / AB. It is the one of the most representative stats for this running Redlegs team who make things happen every time they are up to bat.

The Elly Show is here to stay and it has been a fun one so far. His fielding has improved markedly. His baseball IQ is rising. He keeps his bat back when he should and has lowered his SO%. Oh, and he can hit the ball.

Tiers of Tears

Fresh faces have been hit or miss for the Redlegs so far. 14 of the Red’s opening day roster spots from 2023 were open for the taking due to a plethora of injury, plenty of free agent departures and trades. So far there have been seemingly 3 tiers of new faces:

Tears of Joy

Brent Suter– The Moeller grad- Go Crusaders!- is back in the Queen City finally and with two noted exceptions (April 2nd and 27th where he got jumped on for 4 runs each), this fantastic addition has been lights out. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 16 Ks, and had an impromptu 3.1 inning shutdown performance to back up Montas’ injury shortened start against the Angels.
Andrew Abbott– Read below about this rotation stud
Elly De La Cruz– Lightning in a bottle has escaped and it is named Elly De La Freaking Cruz.

Tears of Hope

Nick Martinez– From the pen, he’s a rock star. Ask him to start and its a completely different game to him: first time through the order he keeps hitters around .200, second plus time through hitters are up above .400
Frankie Montas– A solid Opening Day has taken a downturn to a middling starter showing why the Reds got him, maybe this trip to the IL will rejuvenate him
Bubba Thompson– On the base-paths he is a perfect 5 for 5. At the plate, he’s an imperfect .111 with 11 Ks.
Emilio Pagán– An additional veteran arm for Bell, Pagán has had 3 regrettable performances, 4 perfect outings, and a smattering of middle of the road outings.
Justin Wilson– 1 bad outing against a hot Mariners team keeps Wilson’s numbers from being much better as he has only allowed 1 other run in his other 5.2 innings
Lucas Sims– Either a guaranteed strikeout or a blown up inning, Sims has been off to a rocky start to the 2024 campaign
CES– Very quickly moving in the right direction, CES got off to a pace a snail would’ve outrun. He is either rocking the ball or ice cold. He’ll get more productive over the course of the season.
Nick Martini– Started off hot off the presses with 2 Opening Day homeruns but has since cooled off down to room temp with a .206

Tears of Pain

Jeimer Candelario– Not yet worth the $45 million the team invested over the next three years into the hot corner veteran, although you wouldn’t know it watching the last two games where he’s gone 4-7 with a home run
Santiago Espinal– Outside of a 3-4, including his lone homer, night against Philly, Espinal has been another veteran disappointment. But he is a career .268 hitter who, historically for Toronto, put the ball in the air, so maybe he’ll heat up as the seasons rollover.
Tejay Antone– Through no fault of his own, Antone will be a welcome addition in the booth whenever he can get in there

Comparing Places

	2023	2024*
March/April record	12-16, 4th place 7.5 GB	16-14, 3rd place 2 GB
Series decisions	3-4-2	4-4-1
Streaks	5 W tied second longest 6 L tied longest of the season	3 W 3L
Offense
6+ run games	10	13
BA/OBP/SLG	.248/.330/.365	.220/.304/.375
SB/CS	19-9 (67%)	52-11 (82%)
K	260 (24.6%)	285 (26.5%)
Pitching
< 3 runs allowed	10	13
ERA	4.92	3.83
SP ERA	5.98	3.87
SO	265	152

Player Spotlight

Elly De La Cruz would be here if he wasn’t so busy absolutely decimating the minds of the opponents.

Instead, we’ll look at Andrew Abbott, a young gun in his first full season in the Majors. While his 1-3 record is hardly jumping off the page, his .213 BAA (24th in the league) and WHIP of 1.12 are impressive. He has gone at least 5.0 innings in 5 of his 6 starts, eating much needed innings for the bullpen even when he doesn’t start the game with his best stuff- as seen on Sunday when he let up 4 first inning runs and then settled in for a 7 K, 5.1 innings performance to keep the Reds in the game, eating the 4-3 loss.

Abbott has surrendered a higher than average % of barrels on balls in play which is leading to a higher flayball percentage at 68.4%. He doesn’t have the swing and miss fastball of Greene, but he keeps the ball in the zone to force action. His changeup is his most dependable whiff pitch and has a 31.3% chance of leading to a putout. This comes from a higher than average horizontal movement away from righties and in on lefties.

What’s Growing on the Farm?

Rhett Lowder and Cam Collier are the backbone of a struggling Dayton Dragons team at High-A. Lowder has a crushing 1.89 ERA to go along with 20 Ks on the young year. His 20 strikeouts are more than his hits and walks combined. Collier, on the other side of the ball, has mashed 7 home runs on his way to a .296/.318/.617 slash line. Neither of these two prospects will be with the Dragons long, so get out to see them now if you’re in the area.

A Look Ahead

Round out a trip out west on Wednesday, then home for 6 games against Baltimore and Arizona before flying back out west for a 10 game West Coast trip against the Giants, D-Backs, and Dodgers and a 9-game homestand with the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals.

May 7-19 will be a brutal 13 games in 13 days stretch to include a Thursday day game against Arizona followed by a flight to the Bay Area for a 7:10 local time “Titantic Struggle” on Friday with the Giants. But, then the Reds are done with the Far Coast for the year with a trip to Colorado being the farthest West they go after May 19.

By the end of May, the Reds will be done playing: Philly, Chi-Sox, Seattle, LAA, Rangers, Baltimore, LAD, Padres, and Diamondbacks. Those teams were a combined 769-689 (averaged 85.4 wins) last year sending five of them to the playoffs including both sides of the World Series matchup. Good teams to get out of the way early.

Waiting in the Wings

David Bell will have his hands full by the middle of May with quite a few injured starters returning. TJ Friedl is on track to be back in the middle of the month and should be starting a rehab assignment with Triple A Louisville this weekend.

Alex Young and Ian Gibaut could make their season debuts by the end of the month. Montas should be back by the middle of the month. And Brandon Williamson could vie for a spot in the rotation by late May.

Friedl will likely kick Bubba Thompson or Espinal down to the minors when he is ready to come back and send Steer back to the infield.