19 days into the second month of the season, the Reds look like they might be in real trouble. They sit at 19-28 and are alone at the bottom of the NL Central. After what was a rather positive opening for the injury-plagued Redlegs, they have been downright awful since closing out a three-game sweep of the Angels on the 21st of April. They have split one four-game series, lost eight straight to end April and begin May, and have since won one game per series (3) out west.

The offense has disappeared, generating 2 or fewer runs 12 times since that Angels sweep to include 4 shutouts. They’ve slashed a .212/.279/.326 line with 81 runs and 20 home runs and 221 strikeouts, striking out 24% of the time. The only positive on that side of the ball has been their continued aggressiveness and success on the base paths- Elly leads all of the majors with 30 stolen bases and the Reds as a team lead with 79.

While the bats have sputtered, the starting pitching has been a particularly brighter spot. They’ve managed a 3.80 ERA, 113 Ks, and have left 74% of their baserunners on base. In May, Greene has thrived with a 2.63 ERA with 24 strikeouts. He has pitched into the 7th twice in four games. His fastball is leading the league in strikeouts. To this point in the season, Greene has painted the edges of the zone 43% of the time, league average sits at 39%, and he has a 28.3% swing and miss rate.

Since the beginning of the month, the bullpen has killed what have usually been fighting chances to win games. In 57 innings, the pen has allowed 33 earned runs which has led to 12 meltdowns- or 12 outings where the pitcher shifted the probability of a win in the negative direction by 6% or more. They are tied with Minnesota and Toronto for 3rd worst MD count in May. And their clutch percentage (i.e. a measure for how much better a player is in high leverage situations) is in the basement of the league at -1.57, the next closest team is Detroit with a -1.31.

But, and yes there is a but to this dismal May. Several in fact.

But, the Reds are officially done out west. No more trips to the Far Coast. After an off-day tomorrow, the Reds start a 9 game homestand. And June is their first month playing more than 4 games against the NL Central, aka the games that really matter down the stretch. And they can dig their way out of this 9-game under .500 hole they’ve dug themselves.

But, Jeimer Candelario has started to come to life in May with a .267 BA and only 9 strikeouts- 20 less than April. Stuart Fairchild is hitting .292/.370/.625. And even Santiago Espinal is hitting better than his April self.

The team doesn’t have Elly de la Cruz waiting in the wings like they did the last time they were 8 games under .500 (May 25th last year), BUT they do have TJ Friedl and CES on the IL for a short stint and Matt McLain and Noelvi Marte waiting to join following the All Star Break.

While I’m no MLB manager, I have played one several times across multiple video games so I feel completely qualified to give just one piece of advice to the Reds… stick to a lineup that works. In the last month, the Reds have started 4 different players in the leadoff spot, 3 different 2 and 3 hole hitters, and 7 different cleanups. After that, the lineup is even less consistent.

Meanwhile, the winning teams are playing a consistent 1-4 lineup with rest days. Find a lineup that works and run with it.

The guys on the roster right now need to perform, but there are genuine reasons to not panic and trust the Reds to pull out another June-September run.

As tough as it is, you know when you stay with it, it will turn around. You wish there were shortcuts. Sometimes you have to continue to stick it out. Our team is going to do that.- David Bell after the Reds were blanked 4-0 in LA