Six doubles beat six walks last night and the Cincinnati Reds reached the halfway point of the season with an awakening of their bats in The Lou. Under the watchful eye of the Arch, the Reds put together 16 hits to garner 11 runs- 10 against Miles Mikolas- and a much needed win over the division rival Cardinals. A very similar script took to the field on Monday, 11 runs on 12 hits, in a 11-5 drubbing of Pittsburgh. But then the frustrating Reds resurfaced for the following two games: 6 runs on 13 hits against 15 runs on 20 hits by the Pirates.

This has been the broken record over 3 of the past 4 series: 5+ runs in the first game, 4 runs or fewer in 8 of the other 9 games. In the series against the Pirates in Pittsburgh 17-19 June, the Reds managed just 3 runs… while allowing 6. Since the end of their 7-game win streak on June 9, the Reds have split one two-game series against Cleveland and have lost 4 straight series to put their June record at 13-11. Can they overcome this second game hump and win back-to-back games for the first time since June 14th? Can they start the second 81 games with a win? We’ll have to wait and see.

Sitting at 38-43 and 4th place in the NL Central, the Reds are 3.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. This time last year, the rookie-filled-Reds were 43-38. They would go on to finish the second half 39-42, in third place, and sitting at home when the post season kicked off.

An injured-sophomore-bloated 2024 Reds team is living in a unique position; with their +13 run differential, the Reds are the only team with a plus run-differential and a losing record. In fact, their expected record mirrors this fact: 42-39. That would be good for the final Wild Card spot and second place in the division.

So, why are they on the outside looking in?

They’re 6-14 in 1-run games.

Half-a-bat

The Reds lead the league in steals (114), 33 more steals than the 4th place Phillies. Pair that with a top-10 Hits for Extra Bases percentage (36.2%), and the offense is more than capable. But, a .230 (24th in the league) average paired with a .306 OBP doesn’t allow that speed to kill as much as it should. 8.85 strikeouts per game and a 24.1% K-rate also neuters the run game. If they can turn their Ks into productive outs, the Reds could be looking at a much better second-half.

Elly De La Cruz is still the fire of this team, but recently the core of the team’s lineup has started to produce as the summer heats up. Jonathan India is having an offensive explosion over the last 7 games: .560/.633/.960 with 14 hits, 9 runs scored, 4 RBI against 3 Ks. This mirrors his June production increase as well: .375/.453/.563 with 30 hits, 18 runs, 3 steals, 14 RBI against 21 Ks. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are providing fire power to protect India and Cruz. And, Will Benson recorded two hits in the last game of the first half- so who knows?

The Whole Arm

The rotation has gotten it done in varied ways over the past month. Not including Hunter’s flu-game, Greene has continued to deliver strikeout heavy outings, but has gotten bad luck from the few hits he is allowing. Greene is averaging 10.29 Ks per outing but owns a 5.46 ERA against a .195 BAA in June. Montas had his best start of the season to open his June book going 7 innings allowing 1 hit and striking out 9. His very next start, Frankie let up 4 runs on 5 hits in a short 1.1 inning appearance against Chicago. Abbott has posted a 4-1 record and at least 5 innings through his five starts this month. His 10 K performance against Boston last week was followed up by a baffling 6 walk struggle last night against the Cards- Abbott still managed to eliminate the threat of his gifts in route to a 2 run on 2 hit win.

Meanwhile, Nick Lodolo has been lights out. A 4-1 record, a 2.73 ERA, and 9 earned runs over 5 starts. He battled a blister in his lone loss, allowing 3 earned runs over 4.2 innings. Before that loss, Lodolo had a 5 game win streak to bolster the Reds. He is vying for the “Ace” title over the second half if he can stay healthy.

The pen has been consistent, with Sam Moll and Fernando Cruz the steady arms before bringing in the back-to-old-self Alexis Diaz to close out the game. Carson Spiers, an up-and-down arm so far this year, has been clutch in his seven games so far including 5.2 to clean up Montas’ short start on June 9.

Second Half Outlook

The schedule before the All Star Break might just provide the Reds the opportunity to take a few steps forward in their chase for the playoffs. After closing out the month in St. Louis, the Reds travel to play the Yankees- who are 2-8 in their last 10. Then they close out the pre-Break with a 10 game homestand against 3 of the worst teams in baseball: Tigers, Rockies, and Marlins. Anything less than 7-3 in that homestand would be a disappointment and a huge opportunity lost.

Brewers	vs. Cubs, @ Rockies, @ Dodgers, vs. Pirates, vs. Nationals
Cardinals	vs. Reds, @ Pirates, @ Nationals, vs. Royals, vs. Cubs
Pirates	@ Braves, vs. Cardinals, vs. Mets, @ Brewers, @ Chi Sox
Cubs	@ Brewers, vs. Phillies, vs. Angels, @ Orioles, @ Cardinals

Following the Break, the Reds will face the Nationals, Braves, and Rays on a 9 game road trip and then the Cubs visit to close out the month of July.

Noelvi Marte has returned in style- 3 for 5 with a double, RBI and 3 runs. Stephenson will be back, hopefully with that “Girl Dad” power showcased by India. McClain is about a month from a return to the big leagues. But, CES and Williamson might be done for the year. Friedl and Lodolo are both back on the IL.

Making Moves

In order to survive and compete late this summer, the Reds will need to add some piece(s).

A verifiably consistent outfield bat would be a luxury- hard to take away the defense of Benson and Fairchild if the bat doesn’t shine- and Taylor Ward from the Angels could be a solid part-timer. He dominates left handed pitching, which could compliment Benson very well.

Another arm in the pen to assist Moll, Suter, and Cruz, and possibly take the place of Sims, Mason Miller would be a prime target to steal from the A’s. Tanner Scott from the Marlins is a lefty who has posted an impressive 1.59 ERA with 10 saves.

To get any of these trade candidates, the Reds would have to dip into their rich farm system. Edwin Arroyo might be the most likely trade centerpiece even as the organization’s 3rd best prospect considering the plethora of infield phenomes the system has churned out over the past few years.