Cincinnati is poised like a child on Christmas Eve. The presents are wrapped and stuffed under the tree. We know what we asked the Big Guy for, but anything could be in there. The guy in the Red suit is just around the corner. Prayers may be answered in the morning, but hopes for that new Hotwheel track set might just get dashed as well.

The allure lies in the waiting.

And wake to the best, the original, the Holiday that is Cincinnati Reds Opening Day.

Before we hit the pillow with dreams of Redlegs BBQ Walking Tacos, Skyline Cheese Coneys, and a pennant or two floating through our heads, let’s take a look at the product that Francona and the Reds’ front office has put together to surprise us tomorrow (and the following 185 days).

Ghost(s) of Cincinnati Present

These guys are the familiar faces around the clubhouse.

Infield
Elly De La Cruz
Matt McClain
CES
Jeimer Candelario
Santiago Espinal
Spencer Steer- he will be limited to a DH role as he continues to recover from a shoulder ailment, but Steer maintains his high spirit and energy.

Outfield
TJ Friedl
Jacob Hurtubise
Blake Dunn
Jake Fraley

Starters
Hunter Greene
Nick Lodolo
Nick Martinez*
Carson Spiers

Bullpen
Graham Ashcraft
Sam Moll
Emilio Pagan
Tony Santillan
Ian Gibaut*
Brent Suter*

IL
Alexis Diaz
Tyler Stephenson
Andrew Abbott

Ghost(s) of Cincinnati Past

Here we find the combo of “so-long farewell”s and the “thank you for leaving”s

Buck Farmer- Good luck in Atlanta
Justin Wilson- Wish ya the best in Boston
Amed Rosario- Good luck in the Nationals’ organization
Luke Maile- Kansas City with a friend, not bad
Jonathan India- Gonna miss your hustle, enjoy KC!
Jakob Junis- Enjoy Cleveland…
Fernando Cruz- New York New York! (not that you’ll be hearing that now)

Ghost(s) of Cincinnati Future

And here are the new additions Nick Krall will get credit for bringing into Cincinnati.

Terry Francona (Manager)- While much has been said about Francona being the answer to the Reds’ struggles, he can’t score runs, get guys out, or anything in between with the ball in play. What he can do is bring a winning attitude, culture, and mindset to a program mired in hopes not fulfilled for years. Tito will not win the games, but he can build players and a team to do just that, especially with these additions:

Nick Martinez/Brent Suter- two returns accounting for 208 IP last year and a 3.50 ERA. These two signings by the front office could be the best free agent returns the organization has seen in recent years. Martinez is coming off a month of September ball where he started 5 games to the tune of a 4-1 record, 0.83 ERA, one complete game, 3 earned runs to 30 Ks and 4 walks in 32.2 innings. Suter only pitched 9 games (14.1 innings) compiling 2 saves while giving up 2 runs and 2 walks to 9 Ks in September to close out the year.

Brady Singer- right handed starting pitcher coming over from the Royals in the Jonathan India trade this offseason. He is coming off a career high 32 games started, providing 179 innings. His 1.25 GO/AO number should be a relief for Reds fans as GABP is well known as a hitter (and especially power) friendly park. To give some perspective, only 11 pitchers (who faced a minimum of 100 batters) have had an equal or better mark for the Reds over the past 4 seasons, Luis Castillo for one (and Graham Ashcraft the past two seasons).

Jose Trevino (Catcher)- With the injury to Stephenson, Trevino will get to immediately prove his worth as a veteran of winning teams. He has split time between the Rangers and Yankees in his career. His bat won’t light up any scoreboards as a career .236/.275/.362 line. But he ranked in the top 10 catchers in Defensive Runs Saved last year and was #4 in framing, which is always helpful (until we see robot umpires and take humans out of the game in 202?). However, he was brought in more for his veteran leadership and winning experience than his on-the-field performance anyway.

Austin Hays (OF)- He will figure to be the starting left fielder, as soon as he recovers from his lingering calf issue. Until then he starts the year on the IL. His career .261/.313/.432 will be a welcome addition to the outfield platoon whenever he does arrive. He is coming in out of free agency after spending 6.5 seasons in Baltimore and closed out last year in Philly. And, as an opposite bonus of Singer, he loves to put the ball in the air, so his power numbers could easily see a bump come late May.

Gavin Lux (3B/2B)- Lux will start the year in a position he has only played for 6 innings in the majors as the starting third baseman. He was brought over from the Dodgers where he played second for 2400 innings and SS for over 500. The Reds, however, have a couple set-in-stone young guns holding those positions though, so we will get to see how his skills translate to the hot corner. Luckily, he seems ready. His bat will hopefully stay hot regardless of where he plays. After missing the entire 2023 campaign, Lux slashed .251/.320/.383 during the Dodgers incredible season last year. Reds fans hope to see even better numbers outside of California.

Taylor Rodgers (RP)- a lefty addition to the pen, Rodgers looks to build on a solid last two years in the Bay. Last season, he posted a 2.40 ERA and has experience as a closer with 83 saves in his career- which may come in handy if Diaz stays on the IL for any length. He owns a career 10.51 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

Spring Training Results

We are only going to explore a smattering of spring training stats due to the inconsistency for it to translate to season success ( or failure), but let’s dive right in anyway.

Elly is still Electric
6 steals, 4 homers, .409/.519/.773 and an OPS of 1.292. But even more importantly, while his K% was still 27% (notably a big step in the right direction from 35%), his walk rate has doubled! up to 22.7% compared to 11.2% last year. His speed will be there, but if he can translate this spring plate discipline to the regular season, he could be looking at 50+ more chances on the bases. 80/30 club anyone?

Dunn and Hurtubise look ready.
As two of the young Reds who platooned last year at times in the maligned outfield, Dunn and Hurtubise got their fair shot this trip to Goodyear. Both played in 23 games (Dunn played in 24) out of 29 opportunities, leading all players. And they made the most of it. Dunn slashed .340/.404/.574 with 8 RBI, 2 homers and 6 total XBHs in 47 ABs. He struck out 11 times and garnered 4 walks. Hurty was even better: .289/.449/.474 with 3 RBI, 5 XBHs, 10 runs, 9 walks, 7 Ks, and 5 steals. Both earned their spot over Fairchild.

CES, Friedl, and McClain
These center pieces for the Reds future (surrounding Greene and Elly) each had a good spring. McClain chased way too much (17 Ks to 2 BBs in 55 ABs) but still managed a .255 average. TJ solidified himself as the starting centerfielder. CES provided the power the organization was hoping to see last year before he was sidelined and will likely be in a fun-to-watch 1B platoon with Candy and Steer (once he is healthy and fielding again).

Hunter Has Competition
While Greene is unquestionably the ace of Francona’s rotation, Singer, Lodolo, and Martinez are all looking to compete for that title by year’s end. Greene gave up a high 13 earned runs and 4 homers, but still struck out 29 over 21 innings (that’s 12.4 per 9). Singer had 21 Ks over 17.2 innings while working to a 2.55 ERA but only 1 home run. Lodolo had solid control over the strike zone posting 16 Ks to 5 BBs while building a 2.45 ERA on 10 hits. Martinez was even more lights out with 12 Ks, 3 BBs and only 7 hits and 3 earned runs in 12 innings.

The Pen has Questions
Yet again, the Reds bullpen might be their biggest hurdle as they attempt to step in the winning direction. Last year, only the White Sox (yes, the 121 loss White Sox) had more losses from their bullpen than the Reds and the Reds were one of 5 teams to post a losing record from their pen. Perhaps, Ashcraft with his power and stuff will be a boon in the late innings. Perhaps, Diaz will get back to 2023 form. Perhaps, all it will take is a different approach from the manager. But none of these were answered or hinted at during the spring warm up.

Realistic Presents Under the Tree

Will the Reds win the Pennant? Probably not.

Could they play over .500 ball and compete for a Wild Card? Absolutely, but don’t tell Baseball Prospectus that. ESPN also predicts a sub .500 season. But what do they know? They’re picking the Dodgers to win it back to back and go over 100 wins again.

The Reds should be able to compete in a division that will likely be ruled by the Cubs but will be a gauntlet similar to the AL East. I’m predicting a 82-80 record and the final Wild Card as the ceiling for this first year under Tito’s tutelage. If the transplants don’t preform, though, the floor is bleak, sitting at 69-93 and cellar dwellers only better than Miami, Chicago Sox and the Rockies.

Elly will end the season in the 70/28 club and in the top 3 for MVP, even if the Reds finish outside the playoffs.

Nick Martinez will go back to the pen and dominate once again when Lowder is ready to join the rotation.

But first, we have to sleep.

May you wake to the best day of the year! Happy Reds Opening Day!