Another topsy-turvy weekend in FBS! A sure-fire lock for the ACC Championship lost at home on Friday night. Eight of the AP Top 25 lost. Alabama might be scary again. Ohio State and Indiana seem on a collision course for the first undefeated B1G championship, ever. Notre Dame’s running back situation is wholly unfair to the rest of college football. And who wants to represent the Group of 5?
While we’re all aware that the AP Top 25 is no longer relevant, here at Field 2 Page, we’ve started up the Compilation Rankings. These gather the metrics from ESPN’s analytics of overall efficiency, FPI, strength of record, and game control to give a clearer picture of how good is each team.
| Week 9 | |
|---|---|
| 1 | OSU (1.5) |
| 2 | Indiana (2.5) |
| 3 | Oregon (4.5) |
| 4 | Alabama (5) |
| 5 | Texas A&M (8.25) |
| 6 | Texas Tech (9) |
| 7 | Notre Dame (9.5) |
| 8 | Oklahoma (9.75) |
| 9 | Miami (10) |
| 10 | Georgia (10.5) |
| 11 | Vanderbilt (11) |
| 12 | BYU (12) |
| 13 | Ole Miss (13.75) |
| 14 | USC (14.25) |
| 15 | Texas (15.75) |
| 16 | Tennessee (17) |
| 17 | Utah (18) |
| 18 | Michigan (19.5) |
| 19 | Illinois (19.75) |
| 20 | LSU (21) |
| 21 | Missouri (21.5) |
| 22 | Georgia Tech (21.5) |
| 23 | Cincinnati (21.75) |
| 24 | Louisville (23.75) |
| 25 | South Florida (23.75) |
| Dropped | Washington |
| Dropped | Auburn |
| Determined by Eff+FPI+SOR+GC/4 |
As you can see, the top 4 are separating themselves from the pack, especially following Alabama’s third Saturday in October beat down of Tennessee. It’s been 22 years since Tennessee went into Tuscaloosa and beat the Tide (and that took 5OTs). Interestingly enough #5, Texas A&M, and #12, BYU, are separated by only a half point more than A&M is from Alabama.
Conference by Conference Breakdown
We’re into week 9 of the season, past the midway point and all teams have now played at least 6 games. Only 6 teams remain unbeaten and, if they can manage to stay that way until late November, we could see all 6 of these teams in the playoff. Following, we’re going to breakdown the top echelon of each conference and see who might be heading for the CFP in less than two months.
American
Navy (6-0, 4-0), South Florida (6-1, 3-0), Tulane (6-1, 3-0), Memphis (6-1, 2-1), North Texas (6-1, 2-1)
Navy controls their own destiny. They have a huge game against Notre Dame, but, beyond that, have both South Florida and Memphis still to play. But, watch out for their trip to North Texas the week before that three game stretch. The Middies have put up 32+ in 5 of 6. Their defense, however, has not looked quite Ironsides-esque as they’ve given up 31 in back to back games.
South Florida and Memphis have a showdown at the Liberty Bowl this weekend. A USF win knocks Memphis out of all consideration and puts the onus on Navy to hold up their end for a chance to play twice. A Memphis win and everything is back on the table. The Tigers play USF, Tulane, and Navy. All at home. A sweep would mean they are back in contention for the G5. A loss to any of them and the Tigers can say goodbye to a conference championship.
The Green Wave have looked impressive with wins over Northwestern (currently top 5 in the Big 10) and Duke (currently top 5 in the ACC) and their road loss to Ole Miss, while not quite as nice as it was looking last week, is still not a bad loss. With only Memphis on their schedule, Tulane has a clear shot at an unbeaten record in conference play.
A Mean Green that got embarrassed by USF earlier this month will be looking for blood and a shot at redemption by getting into the conference championship. If UNT can pull out a Midshipmen upset, they could be looking at a 7-1 conference record and a chance to play for the Group of 5 bid.
American Conference Championship: USF v Tulane (winner to the CFP)
ACC
GTech (7-0, 4-0), Virginia (6-1, 3-0), SMU (5-2, 3-0), Louisville (5-1, 2-1), Miami (5-1, 1-1)
Georgia Tech has looked… beatable. And yet, no one has done it yet. If you dropped the Tech from their name and put them in red and black, media pundits would be touting them as the best thing since Nick Saban’s dynasty. The Yellow Jackets have yet to be held under 24 points and only face one more team above .500 in the conference. NC State can be a tricky place to play, just ask the next team here, but if Tech can survive that road trip, the ACC Championship is likely theirs to lose.
Virginia, meanwhile, has one loss (to the Wolfpack) but have 0 losses in conference play (you read that right). Yes, Virginia/NC State played this year, but, because they deigned to play outside of new ACC scheduling regulations, it doesn’t actually count as a conference game. Interesting way to keep a rivalry alive, but not have to care about it. Anyway, the Cavaliers will face Belichick and Co. on Saturday but face two tougher tests after that with a trip out west (Actual Atlantic Coast schools are 1-3 this year when going out there) and a trip to Chapel Hill. They do own a win over Louisville, so if it comes down to the Cards/Cavs for second place due to a slip up by the Cavs they’d at least have that tie breaker.
SMU gets Miami and Louisville at home. Their chances to win both are fairly slim. The win at Clemson is less about how good the Mustangs are and more about Dabo Swinney having lost “it” this year. The Mustangs own two losses against the Big 12, so they won’t make the CFP without an ACC title and I can’t trust them to survive Miami, Louisville, and a trip out to Cal.
Louisville is coming off the biggest win of any ACC game yet this year. But, it’s a double edged sword. With Miami losing, the ACC has no room for error if they want to send two teams to the CFP. Miami could still get in as a one-loss team kept out of the ACC Championship. Georgia Tech could get into the CFP if they can run the table, including beating Georgia, and then lose the ACC Championship. But that’s it. Otherwise, the Cardinals just ensured it’s a one bid conference, yet again.
Miami needs the Carson Beck of their non-conference slate who threw for 705 yards and 5 TDs in games against Notre Dame, USF, and Florida. Not the Carson Beck from Friday who threw 4 interceptions, including the game sealer. They could also use a rushing performance that topped 100 yards in conference play. So far, they’ve achieved 97 and 63 in their two conference matchups. While going 5-1 in their first 6 games, the Canes have yet to leave the state of Florida (they got close when they went to Tallahassee). They have trips to SMU to start November and Pitt to close out the season. If Beck and the rushing attack haven’t gotten hot, it’s hard to imagine they survive both.
ACC Conference Championship: Georgia Tech v Virginia (winner to CFP)
Big 12
BYU (7-0, 4-0), Cincinnati (6-1, 4-0), ASU (5-2, 3-1), Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1), Houston (6-1, 3-1)
The Big 12 felt locked up between Texas Tech and BYU on Friday, with Cincinnati just hanging on. Now, no one should feel safe. The Red Raiders went on the road and were stunned by last year’s conference champs. Now is the time to go ahead and admit you had forgotten Sam Leavitt returned to play without Cam (Gatorade Game v Texas) Skattebo.
BYU will not be undefeated by the end of the season. They face a tough slate going on the road to ISU followed by a trip to Texas for a shot at the Red Raiders. A home date against the Horned Frogs separates them from a trip east to Nippert Stadium and the rising Bearcats. However, that doesn’t necessarily keep them out of the Championship. With Texas Tech and ASU already a game back, albeit both have the 59th+ easiest remaining schedules, BYU and Cincinnati, 19 and 26 in RSOS respectively, have everything in front of them.
Bear Bachmeier just engineered a huge win in the Holy War as BYU came back from down 14-10 early in the 4th quarter. Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby (7th best QBR in the country) leads a balanced attack with 17 passing TDs and only 1 interception to go along with 6 rushing TDs. After an opening week loss to Nebraska, the Bearcats have rattled off 6 straight wins. They have a tough trip out to Salt Lake sandwiched by home visits from Baylor and Arizona, before the big showdown against BYU.
Big 12 Championship: Cincinnati v Texas Tech (winner to CFP)
B1G
OSU (7-0, 4-0), Indiana (7-0, 4-0), Oregon (6-1, 3-1), Northwestern (5-2, 3-1), USC (5-2, 3-1)
The class of the sport runs through Indianapolis. Ohio State, led by their defense (5.8 PPG), is easily the best team we’ve seen this year. Julian Sayin has settled in and loves having the best player in college football and Carnell Tate to throw the ball to anytime he wants. Both receivers have over 580 yards and 6+ TDs. And Bo Jackson with CJ Donaldson combine for a competitive backfield producing 682 yards on the ground and 8 touchdowns. And, outside of Texas Tech, the Buckeye defense is lightyears better than the crowd.
Ope, wait. There’s another red school up there who has something to say about this foolish Buckeye domination talk. The Hoosiers continue to impress, most likely due to 50+ years of ineptitude in Bloomington and not necessarily because of the actual day-to-day product. Cignetti has the Hoosiers neck and neck with scarlet and grey for best in the land. Led by Fernando Mendoza’s 21 TDs, including 9 to Elijah Sarratt, Indiana has compiled the seventh most efficient offense in the country, one spot behind OSU. And the defense isn’t half bad either. Only 1 opponent has topped 15 points, and none have scored 21. Three players have 4+ sacks, Louis Moore has 4 interceptions and a team leading 49 tackles. A mid-November trip to Happy Valley seems much less lackluster and the Hoosiers have a legitimate shot at an undefeated season.
So, there’s the “let’s meet in Indy for some Skyline” echelon to the Big 10, but then there’s a one-team tier of Dan Lanning Ducks. While Eugene took a hit against a great Indiana team, Oregon still took down James Franklin and have a pretty easy schedule until the last two weeks of the season when they welcome the Trojans into their house and then go up I-5 to play the Huskies. The Ducks boast the third most overall, offensive, and defensive efficient team. Other than that loss to Indiana, they’ve allowed an average of 11.8 PPG and haven’t been held less than 30. And the Ducks won’t have to make the Big 10 Championship to make it back into the CFP.
Northwestern tops a host of 5-2, 3-1 Big 10 teams. They easily have the best loss (Oregon) but also went out to Beaver Stadium to actually finish off the Nittany Lions in a stunning 22-21 win. The Wildcats just posted their first shutout since 2017 (19-0 over Purdue). The rest of the schedule is not kind though. If Northwestern wants to join Indiana in the “we can play football too” upstart trend, they have every opportunity with trips to Nebraska, USC, and Illinois over the final five weeks and a home date against Michigan.
Big 10 Championship: OSU v Indiana (both CFP top 4)
Conference USA
Jacksonville State (4-3, 3-0), Kennesaw State (4-2, 2-0)
November 15 will be the deciding day for Conference USA as these two matchup. Since an opening week loss at UCF, Jax State hasn’t scored less than 29 points in a game. Meanwhile, since scoring 9 points on the road against Wake and Indiana, the Owls have rattled off 4 straight wins scoring at least 24 points.
Independents
Notre Dame (5-2)
Will a 10-2 squad make the CFP? Who knows? But, as of now, Notre Dame owns the best 5-2 record in the country and it’s not close. The Irish have stormed through 5 straight wins since their combined 4 point losses. They own 2 wins over the Big 10, a road win over the SEC, a win over the ACC and the Mountain West. The biggest test remaining will be Navy in South Bend followed by a trip to Pittsburgh.
The Irish boast the best running back duo in the country with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combining for 1,267 yards and 17 TDs. They both average over 6 yards a carry. Price has added two kick return TDs. CJ Carr has come a long way since the opening 3 quarters in Miami.
The Irish average 25.8 point wins, including a 43 point road win over Arkansas. Will they run the table and make the playoff? No clue. But for now, they are definitely playing at an elite level and it would be a shame to leave this team out if the playoff started today.
CFP first round host
MAC
Buffalo (4-3, 3-0), Miami (OH) (4-3, 3-0), Western Michigan (4-3, 3-0)
No 3 loss team from the MAC will be representing the Group of 5, but that doesn’t mean the MAC won’t be giving us some fantastic action down the stretch. Particularly coming from Miami as the Redhawks will play both Western Michigan and Buffalo before the end of the season.
Mountain West
Boise State (5-2, 3-0), SDSU (5-1, 2-0), Hawaii (6-2, 3-1), UNLV (6-1, 2-1)
While any of these teams could make the conference championship, barring an impressive meltdown across the American, none of them are making the CFP. Boise has losses to USF and Notre Dame. SDSU lost to Wazzu. Hawaii and UNLV have both suffered losses in the Mountain West which pretty automatically disqualifies you from CFP consideration.
PAC-2
No team over .500
SEC
Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0), Alabama (6-1, 4-0), Georgia (6-1, 4-1), Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1), Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1)
The Aggies have the best record in the SEC, however, Alabama is back to being the class of the conference. It was a long 649 days where the rest of the SEC got to enjoy the idea that Tuscaloosa wasn’t going to be the threat anymore and they could focus on a different game on their schedule. Ty Simpson, Kalen DeBoer, and the Tide have traveled to Athens and Columbia, have played two other top 25 teams at home, and have survived it all. On Saturday they looked reminiscent of the Saban era Tide with a 37-20 throttling of Tennessee. They get tumbling LSU at home before a rocky Oklahoma team comes a calling. They’ll be undefeated in SEC play and face the Aggies in Atlanta.
Georgia plays the “we’re gonna lose, ha! just kidding!” card way too well for anyone to trust them to lose any of their remaining games. Especially when a trip to Mississippi State is the only road game remaining and, after taking care of Arch, they’ll have a scrimmage against Charlotte to prep for the undefeated Yellow Jackets.
Vandy and Diego Pavia should be invited to the CFP even if they lose all their remaining games. Okay, maybe not if they lose to Mark Stoops and the Wildcats, but everyone else. Pavia is just too much fun to keep out.
SEC Championship: Texas A&M v Alabama (both to CFP top 4)
Sun Belt
James Madison (6-1, 4-0), Southern Miss (5-2, 3-0), Troy (5-2, 3-0)
While an early season loss, on the road, to Louisville doesn’t seem quite so bad following Saturday, quite a lot of turmoil will need to occur ahead of them for James Madison to be considered for the Group of 5 rep.
If the CFP Happened Today
| Seed | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State |
| 2 | Indiana |
| 3 | Alabama |
| 4 | Texas A&M |
| 5 | Miami |
| 6 | Notre Dame |
| 7 | Georgia |
| 8 | Oregon |
| 9 | Vanderbilt |
| 10 | BYU |
| 11 | Ole Miss |
| 12 | South Florida |
The upcoming week will shed a little bit more light on some of these teams as Vanderbilt faces Missouri in Nashville, Ole Miss will go back on the road against Oklahoma, and Texas A&M could put Brian Kelley out to pasture with a big win in Baton Rouge. For the G5, South Florida faces Memphis in a must win for the Tigers and Boise State, fresh off a win over then undefeated UNLV, can get back into the picture if they can win out starting with a road trip to Nevada.
Next week, I’ll be releasing my first CFP bracket of the year, so stay tuned.
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