In Week 9, College Football tried to correct some things from the chaos of the last two weeks. But some of the SEC’s top-tier didn’t want to play along until late in their games.
Alabama was down 22-14 with 3 minutes left, and won in regulation.
A&M trailed 18-14 at half time in Baton Rouge before the Aggies put up 35 points in the second half to walk out with an easy 49-25 road victory that sunk the Kelly ship.
Ole Miss saw the Sooners put together 16 straight points in the third quarter before Lane Kiffin overheard some trash talk, decided he wanted to finish what Arch Manning started and buried Oklahoma for good.
Diego Pavia and Missouri went back and forth as neither team was convinced they were allowed to win against the other, until Pavia remembered he needed to win the Heisman with his legs.
Texas left a lot of us questioning if their defense took the game off or did they really need 24 points in the fourth quarter to force OT against Cowbells?
Even the Group of 5 saw some craziness as Memphis overcame a 31-17 4th quarter deficit to stun USF.
Meanwhile, Indiana played the Evil Stepmother and ended UCLA’s little Cinderella run in emphatic fashion. Oregon relied on the magic of Eugene to survive a slow performance against Wisconsin. Georgia Tech and Miami handled lesser ACC opponents by 25+, each putting up 41+. Washington looked impressive in their victory over the Illini.
| Week 10 | |
|---|---|
| 1 | OSU (1.5) |
| 2 | Indiana (2) |
| 3 | Oregon (5) |
| 4 | Alabama (5.5) |
| 5 | Texas A&M (6) |
| 6 | Notre Dame (8.25) |
| 7 | Texas Tech (8.75) |
| 8 | Georgia (10.25) |
| 9 | Miami (10.75) |
| 10 | Vanderbilt (11.5) |
| 11 | BYU (12.25) |
| 12 | Ole Miss (12.25) |
| 13 | Tennessee (13.75) |
| 14 | Utah (15) |
| 15 | Oklahoma (15.25) |
| 16 | USC (16) |
| 17 | Texas (17) |
| 18 | Michigan (17) |
| 19 | Cincinnati (19.5) |
| 20 | Georgia Tech (20.5) |
| 21 | Louisville (23.5) |
| 22 | Missouri (23.75) |
| 23 | South Florida (24.5) |
| 24 | Washington (25) |
| 25 | Illinois (27.5) |
| Dropped | LSU |
| Determined by Eff+FPI+SOR+GC/4 |
Big Moves
Big losers Oklahoma and Illinois are both down 7 spots, and both lost their track into the CFP as OU dropped a home game to other CFP hopeful Ole Miss and the Illini were crushed out west and move to 2-3 in the Big 10.
In Compilation minus FPI, Cincinnati jumped 7 spots to number 16 as Brendan Sorsby continues putting on a Heisman-worthy campaign. The Bearcats have a chance to impress the nation this weekend when they head out to Utah (College GameDay is even skipping Vandy at Texas and OU at Tennessee for this one).
Here’s two minutes of Brendan Sorsby being Brendan Sorsby:
AP Poll Comparison
Texas Tech- #7 Compilation, #13 AP
Blamed more for a one score loss at ASU than Alabama is for a two score loss at FSU. Red Raiders weren’t within two scores of any other team, including now AP ranked Utah and Houston.
Georgia Tech- #20 Compilation, #8 AP
A top 8 SOR is the only thing getting GT into the top 20. A less than impressive win over Clemson at home and a 1 point squeak by at Wake have the Yellow Jackets on the edge. But, the AP sees the 8-0 and keeps them higher up. Are there really 12 teams better than Georgia Tech? I don’t know, but BYU certainly is and they are 10th in the AP.
Houston and Memphis- NR Compilation, #22 and #25 AP respectively
Shiny 7-1 records appear to matter more to the AP pollers than the fact that Houston lost at home to Texas Tech and Memphis laid a dud at 3-4 UAB ahead of their home matchup against USF.
The Next Up
While I don’t track every team in FBS, I do try to keep a tab on some of the teams outside the Top 25 to let you know how they are doing and how close they are to breaking into that top 25 (and more importantly next week’s CFP rankings).
LSU sits just outside the Top 25 with an average ranking of 27.75 (29.67 Comp – FPI). Virginia (7-1), Houston (7-1) and Tulane (6-1) sit comfortably behind the Tigers, but with the way the Tigers are playing (and minus Brian Kelly) there’s little doubt these 3 will climb above them by the end of the season. Navy, meanwhile, is a lowly 58.75, with only a 28th ranked SOR accounting for any top-60 ranking. The Midshipmen have a solid chance to climb the rankings (and would undoubtedly make the CFP if they can stay unblemished in the American) over their next four games: at North Texas, at Notre Dame, at home against USF, and at Memphis. The Army-Navy game won’t matter to the committee as it occurs after the CFP bracket is already set.
South Florida actually moved up after their loss, but will be on an uphill climb behind the Green Wave and Navy for a shot at the American title game (and a CFP berth). The Bulls are buoyed by an opening week win over Boise State, an (at-the-time) impressive road win over Florida, and a blow out road win over North Texas (and the Mean Green have blown everyone else out of the water scoring 50+ in 4 games this year (and 33+ in all 8)).
Coaches Hot Seat Carousel
$167.9 million.
And we’re only in October.
Twelve schools across the country have divvied out over 167 million dollars to have their coaches stop coaching for them. After Brian Kelly’s recent firing at LSU, there are 8 Power 4 schools with interim coaches. LSU is, obviously, one of the most desired landing spots among those and will easily attract a ton of attention. But Penn State and Florida also sit headless, while Arkansas, Oklahoma State, and Stanford will vie for their own turnarounds. UCLA and Virginia Tech are likely the bottom feeders of this Power 4 grouping.
Look for Luke Fickell (Wisconsin), Mike Norvell (FSU), and Hugh Freeze (Auburn) to also be ushered out the door by season’s end.
CFP Bracket Prediction
This is my prediction based on everything up to now, not who I think would be in as of now.
This bracket makes the following assumptions:
- OSU, Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia Tech, BYU, and Navy make it to their respective conference championships undefeated in conference play
- Vanderbilt and Ole Miss win out
- Georgia Tech beats Georgia
- Louisville and Virginia each lose at least one more game
- Notre Dame beats Navy and the fact that the Irish lost on the road to Miami allows them to be ranked ahead of the Canes
- USC goes 7-2 in the Big 10
What do you think? Who makes the CFP? Who wins it all?
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