What are the Cincinnati Reds going to do before pitchers and catchers report to make a difference in the NL Central? After finishing in third place and claiming the NL’s final Wild Card spot when the Mets lost to the Marlins in game 162, the Reds have to aim higher next year. And that change in trajectory has to start now. But, we all also need to realize, 2025 was a year, or two, ahead of projections for this team to be competing for a wild card spot, much less the division as a whole.
I’ll be doing something I absolutely dreaded doing during my time in the Navy, and that is posing questions without answers throughout this article. I am not an insider. I do not talk to Tito or Hunter or Elly or anyone associated with the Reds. So, I don’t have all the answers but I think these questions need to be posed and answered by the time we see spring training come around.
The Problems
Cincinnati ended the 2025 campaign 21st in homeruns, with only two players hitting 20+. Only the Brewers and Padres had less and made the playoffs (and the Brewers scored 90 more runs than the Reds). So, an addition of a thumper bat remains a key question. Just as it has in many previous offseasons.
The Reds had the ninth best starting ERA in the majors, and were third in WHIP and sixth in BAA. Can they rely on Greene, Abbott, and Lodolo to be quite as good as they were this year? Who gets the nod at the fourth and fifth starter roles?
Of the 569.1 innings pitched by the bullpen, 269 (47.2%) were pitched by four arms (Santillian, Pagan, Barlow, and Suter). Pagan is a free agent and Suter and Barlow’s options were declined. Who takes on the 195.1 innings (34.3%) that those three vacate? The Reds brought in Keegan Thompson on a one-year deal, but he will need to drastically improve if he expects to be a depth piece.
Can the Reds develop Sal Stewart into an everyday threat? And, where to put him? (Not Slytherin) While, yes, a huge part of the Reds’ September, he also only appeared in 18 games. Can he be the Red who developed in the minors and actually bridges the gap to the majors? We will see. But then, where do you play him? His “natural” position is filled by a Gold Glove. He played well at first, but then what to do with Steer, who also played better than average there?
How much money do the Reds have to play with?
Well, Nick Krall answered this one for us when he announced that the budget will be “around the same” for 2026 as it was in 2025. That means yet another bottom half payroll, and some big questions about some supposed mainstays.
Friedl is set to earn $4.2 million more than last year. Steer adds $3.8 million. Singer and Lodolo each get a bump of approximately $3 million. That’s $14 million for 4 players. The four guaranteed contracts of Greene, Hayes, Trevino, and Thompson bring that number up to $35.85 million for 8 guys of a 26-man roster.
The 26 man active roster at the end of 2025 was making $82 million (19th in the league). That was $27 million less than league average, and, if you take out the three largest (LAD, NYM, and PHI) and the three lowest (CHW, WSH, MIA), it was still $14 million less than average.
Oh, and we’ll be paying $13 million to Candellario to not play for us. And $2.25 million will be going to Barlow, Austin Hays, and Brent Suter who each had their options declined.
Some Answers
Third base is Hayes’ domain and will be for at least a couple more years after he showcased a Gold Glove for the second straight season at the hot-corner.
Francona, while extremely irritating for the fans at times, is the front man for this coming-of-age story on the River. The Reds were only 1 game better than .500 in the second half of the season, something most Francona teams far exceeded. In 24 seasons managing, Francona’s teams have only gotten better in the second season once (his second year in Philly in 1998). Can he and the young guns buck that trend? 83 wins likely doesn’t make the postseason next year. I’d say they need to add 3+ wins if they want any shot at the third wild card, let alone vying for anything better.
Friedl and Marte will be part of the outfield. But where they play can still be explored. Friedl has passed the eye-test multiple times over, however, could he move to left to allow more flexibility for the acquisition of a centerfield bat instead of a corner bat? That would be helpful for sure. Marte, can stay and learn right field. He showed excellent promise out there, but was obviously still learning the position in the midst of trying to compete in a playoff race.
Free Agents
- Santiago Espinal
- Ian Gibaut
- Barlow
- Hays
- Suter
Four Big Questions
Right away, what is the status of your starting pitching?
1-4 seem to be spoken for, with the Ace role possibly up for grabs.
Hunter Greene started 19 games this year (shortened due to injury), posting a 2.76 ERA and astronomical 0.94 WHIP and .192 BAA. His best game was when the team most needed it in a one-hit complete game shutout of the Cubs on September 18. However, Andrew Abbott, arguably, had a better year. Abbott threw 29 starts including a complete game three-hitter shutout against the Guardians on June 10. He posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .235 BAA, but he had one of the most dominant months of a season that any Reds pitcher has had. In May, he posted a 0.55 ERA in 32.2 innings spanning 6 starts. He allowed 3 runs against 33 strikeouts (in fact, he had more Ks than baserunners). Abbott certainly petered off there by the end of the campaign (a woeful August really inflated his numbers), but a strong offseason to build on his legs could see him competing with the incumbent for that SP1 spot.
Then you have Lodolo, who also dealt with some injuries, and Singer. Lodolo saw an increase of over 40 innings from his previous campaign, and his late season groin issues may have stemmed from that jump. However, he was still effective, garnering 28 starts including two complete games and a shutout. His 3.33 ERA was almost a full run better than the average starting pitcher (4.21) and he averaged just under a strikeout per inning. Singer, meanwhile, was a workhorse. He put up 169.2 innings across 32 starts. Two dreadful games where he gave up 7 earned runs boosted his ERA to an end-of-season 4.08 (still better than league average), however Singer put together 15 quality starts for the Reds and only gave up 4 or more runs 5 times.
So, Greene/Abbott, Lodolo/Singer seem to be the 1-4 rotation. Who takes the final spot? Does Rhett Lowder prove himself enough in spring training to overtake Chase Burns? If so, how do you keep Burns on the active roster? He has dynamite stuff that could be a useful piece of a rebuilt bullpen. As MLB’s #4 ranked rookie, Burns will be on the Opening Day roster in some capacity.
Eventually, what do you do with Matt McLain?
The young second baseman is set to have his first fully healthy offseason since left-shoulder surgery sidelined him in 2024. And, while his bat was notably down, McLain posted one of the best defensive years the Reds have had since Brandon Phillips departed (only Jose Iglesias’s 2019 was better). In fact, he was one of the best in the game at second, posting the sixth best season among all qualified second baseman and third best among those who played 1,000+ innings. So, why would you move on from him? Especially, as Krall pointed out at the trade deadline, when the team philosophy focuses on defense.
You wouldn’t.
Now, he will focus a good amount this offseason on his bat, I’m sure. But even splitting the difference between his 2023 breakout and 2025 slump would be an acceptable form from such a strong defensive player.
Decidedly, how do you feel about Elly De La Cruz?
Now that he has achieved the 162 game feat, how many games do we see from Elly in 2026? I think you’d be hard pressed to get him to sit more than 10 games (barring injury). So, over 150 games, where do you play him? Does he get the DH spot more than 5 times?
Over 1382 innings at short, he committed 26 errors (better than his 29 in 2024) and led the majors. But, 14 of those occurred after the All Star break when his bat also took a dive. Was it mental? Was it too much focus one way forcing the other side to suffer? We will probably never know. But, I’d expect to see him settle down again and cut the errors down to 20-22 next year.
The idea of moving him to centerfield doesn’t make much sense to me. Yes, you’d cut down on throwing errors, but it would be a completely new area of responsibility. And, do we want Marte and Cruz both learning the outfield at the same time? I don’t love that plan.
So, keep him at short, and then I think he needs to move to the one or two spot in the lineup, rather than the 3 hole. It takes the pressure off of him to hit home runs and instead enforces the idea of just getting on base. If his legs are healthy, that is still his biggest asset. Use it.
Systematically, can you afford a big bat/do you need one?
Every team to make the postseason had at least one guy hitting more homers than the Reds best. In fact, 65 players hit more than Elly and 72 hit more than Steer. So, yes, something needs to be done to add a bat.
As I pointed out above, the Reds don’t exactly have deep pockets. A back-filled deep-dive all-in move to bring Kyle Schwarber home would excite a lot of fans. He would be looking for $25 million plus (roughly $120-145 million over 4-5 years) and, while he would nicely fit the power-bat DH hole that the Reds desperately need filled, that’s roughly a quarter to a third of their active roster’s payroll right there.
Could they, instead, move a Steer/Singer/Friedl in order to a) make space for Stewart and b) bring in a power bat?
Or, do they believe in Steer, De La Cruz, and Stewart to produce for a full year? Spencer is likely giving you 20-25 homers (closer to 20). De La Cruz is likely not topping 30, maybe not even 25. And Stewart, while he did mash in the minors and showed great pop in his 18 games, has too small of a sample size to extrapolate much from.
Targets
Miguel Andujar- a lefty killer, Andujar would be welcomed back to Cincy. However, his durability and lack of use in the field (he played 4 games in the field for the Reds) definitely hamstrings the DH role.
Cody Bellinger- while likely around the same price as Schwarber, Bellinger gives less power but more flexibility. He plays four positions (OF and 1B) and his pop could be upwards of 25-30 homers.
Kyle Schwarber- home town kid, maybe willing to take some money off the top to play for his home team?
Harrison Bader- his first trip to Cincy was atrocious, amounting to a -0.3 WAR in 14 games. But he had a stellar 2025 campaign in Minnesota and Philly garnering a 3.9 WAR on a .277/.347/.449 slash with 17 homers. He will be 32 for the ’26 season, but could improve the outfield defense by quite a lot (Friedl posted -10 runs saved above average while Bader posted +13). He would likely be looking at $10-14 million in average annual value.
Kyle Finnegan- right handed reliever coming off a year where he posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 56 appearances (57 innings). He maintained his career average with 8.7 K/9. While he will likely get a lot of attention, he would be worth a look at ~$10 million/year.
Steven Matz- lefty reliever posted a 3.05 ERA on a 1.10 WHIP in 76.2 innings. While certainly a high price, with the departure of Suter, the Reds desperately need a left hander in the pen. Likely comes with a $8.5 million price tag.
Potential Opening Day Roster
- C- Tyler Stephenson
- 1B- Spencer Steer (Sal Stewart platoon)
- 2B- Matt McLain
- 3B- Ke’Bryan Hayes
- SS- Elly De La Cruz
- RF- Noelvi Marte
- CF- New Addition
- LF- TJ Friedl
- DH- Sal Stewart (Gavin Lux/Cruz/Steer Platoon)
- SP1- Hunter Greene
- SP2- Andrew Abbott
- SP3- Nick Lodolo
- SP4- Brady Singer
- SP5- Rhett Lowder
- RP- Graham Ashcraft
- RP- Luis Mey
- RP- Zach Maxwell
- RP- Keegan Thompson
- RP- Chase Burns
- RP- New Addition
- Closer- Tony Santillian
- Bench- Jose Trevino, Gavin Lux, New Additions
Don’t be surprised to see Alfredo Duno have a similar call-up as Stewart by the end of next season. He hasn’t played higher than Single-A but smashes the ball and calls a great game behind the plate. Fall ball should give him a chance to make Double-A out of camp and then quickly climb.
What do you think? Do the Reds make a splash? A big-time trade? How do you feel about the bullpen and the bench? Let me know!
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