If you ever wondered which type of football is best, it’s the kind played in Happy Valley and Iowa City this weekend. It’s the kind where you think you know the result through the first three quarters and then the fourth quarter turns everything on its head. Sure, for fans of the teams, it sure is nice to have everything wrapped up and dominated within the first half. But that’s not the best football.
The best gives the underdog a chance. It plays the mantra of “Any Given Saturday” backwards and forwards and all across the field. Who doesn’t love watching an underdog not turnover and play dead the entire game? Who doesn’t love seeing the fight in players and coaches and programs that everyone gave up on? I certainly do. And, heck, sometimes it pays off. Shout out to Luke Fickell and the Badgers!
| Week 12 | |
|---|---|
| 1 | OSU (1.5) |
| 2 | Indiana (2) |
| 3 | Texas A&M (4.25) |
| 4 | Oregon (4.75) |
| 5 | Alabama (5.5) |
| 6 | Texas Tech (6.5) |
| 7 | Notre Dame (8.25) |
| 8 | Georgia (8.5) |
| 9 | Ole Miss (10.5) |
| 10 | Utah (11.5) |
| 11 | Oklahoma (12) |
| 12 | Texas (12.5) |
| 12 | USC (12.5) |
| 14 | Miami (13.75) |
| 15 | BYU (14.25) |
| 16 | Vanderbilt (15.75) |
| 17 | Tennessee (16.5) |
| 18 | Michigan (17.5) |
| 19 | South Florida (19.5) |
| 20 | Illinois (21.75) |
| 21 | Iowa (23.25) |
| 21 | Cincinnati (23.25) |
| 23 | LSU (25) |
| 24 | Pitt (26.25) |
| 25 | Georgia Tech (27) |
| Dropped | Missouri and Louisville |
| Determined by Eff+FPI+SOR+GC/4 |
Movement
BYU dropped 8 spots after a completely deflated showing in Lubbock. With Memphis’ loss, South Florida climbed up to 19. And Louisville plummeted 9 spots out of the rankings.
CFP Week 1 Critique
The CFP committee got two things right last week: Notre Dame above Miami and leaving the ACC out of the Top 12.
Yes, they have identical records. Yes, Miami beat Notre Dame (at home). But, you know what Notre Dame doesn’t have? A loss to an unranked team. No matter how you shake it out, Miami’s loss to SMU is a worse loss than either of the Irish’s losses. And Texas’s loss to Florida is even worse, but I covered that last week. If you want the committee to play the “head-to-head matters most” game, then what do you do with SMU, Florida, and NC State (who has wins over two top 25 teams)?
And speaking of those wins, the ACC might be worse than the top of the G5 this year. JMU is hot on their tail for a higher ranking as a conference champion. And then you have the American champ. If both end up ranked in the top-25 before championship weekend and somehow Duke wins the ACC, which is quite possible, how do you allow 4-loss Duke (with losses to Tulane and UConn) in over both of them?
The CFP committee got two things wrong last week: Texas in the Top 12 and Tennessee in the Top 25.
Texas had the worst loss of any team in the top 15 before Saturday (when Cal beat Louisville in Kentucky) and two close games against teams under .500. The Red River Shootout win over OU has the asterisk of Mateer not being fully healthy. The Longhorns are 2-1 in games against teams over .500, and So, 5-1 against teams below .500. So, how are they ranked ahead of Miami?
And Tennessee has 0 wins over winning teams. 0. What could possibly give them a better resume than Group of 5 leaders or Cincinnati?
CFP Bracket Prediction
A rematch of last year’s Natty? Give me!
Crazy Scenarios
Alright, take off your tinfoil hat because there’s no conspiracies down here. Just plain, old, crazy.
Big 10 Conference Championship
If Ryan Day can’t figure out how to exorcise the Buckeyes’ Wolverine Demons and the Bucks falter at the finish line, we could see Indiana v Michigan in the title game. Or, we could see Indiana v USC. Or Indiana v Oregon. But then, what happens to the Bucks? Are they forgiven yet again and allowed into the field (yes)? Then, if Indiana falls to whoever they face, does the Big 10 get 3 teams in? Or, if USC beats Oregon, but then Oregon finishes as a 10-2 team with their losses only coming to the Big 10 title matchup, do they really fall out of the top 12? Could we see 4 Big 10?
SEC
Alabama and Texas A&M seem on a crash course, so let’s just assume they take the SEC championship and the runner-up gets into the playoff as well. We still have a possibility where Texas beats Georgia at Georgia and then loses to A&M and finishes 9-3. OU would also have lost to Bama, so another 9-3 SEC team (assuming a win over Mizzou). Ole Miss is probably in at 11-1 with a singular win over a Top 25 team (OU) unless Tulane wins the American. Georgia loses to Texas and, let’s get crazy, Georgia Tech. They’d be 9-3 but own a win over Ole Miss (and Tennessee who the committee really respects for some unknown reason).
ACC
Georgia Tech loses to Pitt but beats Georgia to finish their season 10-2. Virginia loses to Duke. Pitt beats Miami but loses to Notre Dame. SMU loses to Louisville (or Cal). And Duke wins out. Duke beats Pitt in the ACC Championship. Duke is a 9-4 conference champion.
Big 12
Cincinnati beats BYU and faces Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship. Cincinnati beats Texas Tech. The Red Raiders finish 11-2 with a road loss without their starting QB and a loss in the conference championship (likely ranked in the top 6 before the championship).
G5
JMU finishes as a 12-1 Sun Belt champion. Navy falls to North Texas for the American Championship. UNT is a 12-1 American champion.
So the committee has: 11-1 OSU, 12-1 Indiana, 11-2 USC, 10-2 Oregon, 12-1 Alabama, 12-1 Texas A&M, 11-1 Ole Miss, 9-3 Georgia, 9-3 Texas, 9-3 OU, 10-2 Georgia Tech, 9-4 Duke, 11-2 Cincinnati, 11-2 Texas Tech, 12-1 JMU, and 12-1 UNT.
USC and Alabama are guaranteed. Cincinnati is probably a lock. Duke, JMU, and UNT, one of these is left out. Then 7 spots left for 10 teams. Which three are booted?
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