A week after close calls in the Big 10 and some fall flat performances in the ACC, the SEC decided it was their time to shine with four big time games taking center stage.
South Carolina looked poised to shock the college football world at half time. OU took body blow after body blow and kept responding. Officials blatantly aided Ole Miss at the end of their game against Florida. And Georgia put the Longhorns out to pasture, making Arch and Co. look silly for most of 60 minutes.
Elsewhere, Navy, fresh off a humbling loss at Notre Dame, kept their hat in the ring with a competitive win over USF. Virginia dominated Duke to ensure the ACC doesn’t get left out of the playoff. Georgia Tech tried to play themselves out of CFP contention against Boston College. USC survived a tough Big 10 match against Iowa. And Northwestern just couldn’t seal the deal in Wrigley to take down the Wolverines.
| Week 13 | |
|---|---|
| 1 | OSU (1.5) |
| 2 | Indiana (2.25) |
| 3 | Oregon (4.5) |
| 4 | Texas Tech (5.5) |
| 5 | Texas A&M (6.25) |
| 6 | Notre Dame (6.75) |
| 7 | Georgia (7) |
| 8 | Alabama (8.5) |
| 9 | Utah (9.75) |
| 10 | BYU (10.25) |
| 11 | Oklahoma (10.75) |
| 12 | Ole Miss (11.75) |
| 12 | Miami (12.5) |
| 14 | USC (13.5) |
| 15 | Texas (15) |
| 16 | Vanderbilt (15.5) |
| 17 | Tennessee (16) |
| 18 | Michigan (16.75) |
| 19 | Illinois (20.75) |
| 20 | Iowa (21.75) |
| 21 | Missouri (23.5) |
| 22 | LSU (26.25) |
| 22 | Washington (26.25) |
| 24 | South Florida (26.75) |
| 25 | SMU (28.5) |
| Dropped | Cincinnati, Pitt, Georgia Tech |
| Determined by Eff+FPI+SOR+GC/4 |
Not all records are the same. It matters who you beat, it matters who you play, and it matters how you play. I built my own little resume metric using a weighted system of wins, losses, home record, road record, Power 4 opponents v G5 opponents v FCS opponents, wins against teams over .500 by 2 possessions, and losses to teams under .500.
The top 3 are no surprise: OSU, Indiana, Texas A&M. The next 6? A bit more eye opening: Notre Dame, BYU, Texas Tech, Michigan, Alabama, USC.
But I think this system helps break down the resume debates pretty well. It rewards good wins (road wins are awarded .3 and dominant wins are awarded .5) and punishes bad losses (home losses and to teams under .500 each take away .5) while also taking into account who you are scheduling (P4 is given a .1, G5 is given a -.1, and FCS is given a -.5).
Teams like Tennessee, Missouri, and LSU that metrics still love enough to keep in the top 30, are dropped significantly. While teams like James Madison and UNT are given a better shot at the Top 25 (and, more importantly, a ranking above the ACC).
Here’s the Top 12 (and the top 2 G5): OSU 5.9, Indiana 5.1, Texas A&M 4.9, Notre Dame 4, BYU 4, Texas Tech 3.9, Michigan 3.7, Alabama 3.2, USC 3, Utah 2.6, Ole Miss 2.5, Georgia 2.4, Tulane 1.7, JMU 1.6. Of note, Georgia Tech and Virginia each are at 2.2.
Who is still alive?
Independent
Notre Dame
The Irish did exactly what they needed to do when the opposing coach said he didn’t care about the game. They took that to heart and beat the crap out of them at their house. 3-1 against the ACC, 1-1 against SEC, and 2-0 against Big Ten. 4 two possession plus wins against teams that are currently better than .500.
SEC
Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, OU
Ole Miss’s resume sits behind two loss Notre Dame, Michigan, Alabama, USC, and Utah. Not to mention fellow one loss BYU and Texas Tech. A loss in the Egg Bowl would be a huge hit to their CFP hopes. But, a win, could get them into the SEC Championship and there’s no chance the runner up there isn’t making the Dance.
ACC
Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, SMU (fringe: Miami)
Pitt played like a team whose coach told them he didn’t care if they lost by 100. It was sloppy and uninspired. That late touchdown was garbage time in the extreme. If they can’t right the ship and actually focus over the next two weeks, they will be out, and have only their coach to blame. (And a loss to West Virginia)
Big 10
Indiana, OSU, USC, Oregon, Michigan
USC and Michigan have interesting paths to the playoffs. SC has a tough road trip to Eugene, which, if they win, could bring up more questions about Oregon than answers about the Trojans. Meanwhile, Michigan gets a road trip in Maryland to tune up before The Game in Ann Arbor. A win against the Buckeyes would likely catapult them into serious contention, but they do lose the head-to-head matchup with fellow 2-loss teams, USC and OU.
Big 12
Texas Tech, BYU, Utah
Utah has to win out, but also needs some help from those in front of them to get a sniff at the playoff. A BYU stumble against UC would help, but even then, the Cougs own the tiebreaker to reach the Big 12 championship. The Utes also need some combination of Notre Dame, Alabama, OU, Oregon, and Ole Miss to drop four plus games over the final two weeks. Good luck.
G5
Navy, Tulane, North Texas, East Carolina, James Madison
East Carolina could doom the American. Losses to NC State and BYU while semi-respectable and easily forgiven, respectively, when paired with a loss at Tulane won’t earn a higher ranking than JMU and likely not the ACC champion, whoever that is.
24 teams for 12 spots. May the Odds be in… some of your favor.
CFP Critique Week 2
The CFP committee got two things right last week:
Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss. Recognizing that the Red Raiders would likely be undefeated if they had their starting QB available for their games against the Sun Devils (a road game they lost by 4) is a great call. Their resume is much more solid than Ole Miss, and, if they can win out, they could crack the top 4.
Not dropping BYU out of contention. The Cougars singular loss was a no-contest, sure. But respecting the Holy War and an otherwise dominant season is exactly what the committee should be doing.
The CFP committee got two things wrong last week:
Putting Miami ahead of Georgia Tech. Miami has a similar resume to USC. They own a nice win over Notre Dame. They also own a home loss to Louisville and a road loss to SMU. USC, meanwhile, has road losses to Illinois and Notre Dame and wins over Michigan and Iowa (both by more than 3 points). Oh, and no FCS teams on their schedule.
Keeping Tennessee ranked. I will die on this hill. Their resume is trash. And moving them up instead of putting JMU or Tulane into their spot just adds wood to the SEC bias fire. Because, why else would you keep them ranked? Oh, to give Georgia, Alabama, and OU more ammunition as CFP hopefuls because they have “ranked wins” over Tennessee.
Weekly Hypothetical
Georgia Wins Out, Doesn’t Go to SEC Championship
Texas Tech Wins Out, Wins Big 12
Who gets the 4th bye?
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