Texas and Miami do not deserve to make the argument “oh, I guess we just shouldn’t schedule tough non-conference games.” Yes you played tough week one opponents. For Texas, yes your record would probably be different if you had scheduled a cupcake. But, that doesn’t excuse losing to a team that subsequently imploded (Louisville) at home nor a 4-8, non-bowling, Florida Gators when they still had their head coach. Either way you look at it, those are bad losses, Florida being the worst loss on any contender’s resume. Why is Ohio State number one and Indiana number 2? Because of the Texas game. Why is Miami at 10-2 ranked higher than their own conference champion game attendee, Virginia? Because of Notre Dame. Just because the rankings can’t possibly work out where Ohio State, Miami, Notre Dame, and Texas aren’t all ranked in that order doesn’t mean the games were worthless.

Ohio State has the most complete team in the country. They have the best defense, probably better than everyone but Georgia’s 2021 unit. There’s likely 3-4 first round picks, maybe 5, on that side of the ball. Then you have the best wide receiver duo in the country with Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith. Throw in Innis and that’s a roster’s worth of NFL-caliber receivers. The running game is evolving, as it showed against TTUN to the tune of 186 yards on 47 carries. And Sayin, while still young, is able to overcome the adversity of a second throw interception to lead the Buckeyes to a victory up north. That’s all around scariness.

There are 68 non-playoff bowl eligible teams and 35 bowls to fill. The NCAA will allow Missouri State and Delaware, both in the first year in the FBS, to fill out the bowl games. Let’s go Bears!

In my estimation, there are 19 teams still alive for the CFP (and Utah still has a better case than some of these). So, I shortened my rankings down to those 19 resumes.

Week 15
1	OSU (1.5)
2	Indiana (2)
3	Oregon (3.5)
4	Texas Tech (5.25)
5	Notre Dame (6.5)
6	Alabama (7.75)
7	Texas A&M (8.25)
8	Miami (8.5)
9	Georgia (8.75)
10	BYU (10.75)
11	Ole Miss (11.25)
12	Vanderbilt (11.5)
13	Oklahoma (11.75)
14	Texas (14.25)
15	James Madison (28.25)
16	UNT (29.5)
17	Virginia (31)
18	Tulane (39.5)
19	Duke (59)
	Found by Eff+FPI+SOR+GC/4

There are likely 7 locks (OSU, Indiana, Oregon, Texas Tech, Georgia, Alabama, and Texas A&M) with 2-3 spots remaining for conference champs (3 if Tech beats BYU, 2 if BYU beats Tech). Either Tulane or UNT will get in. Then things get hazy. If Virginia wins, there’s your fifth conference champion. If Virginia loses and JMU wins, how could you leave the Dukes out? Duke has, by far, the worst resume of any of these and is not really a member of the debate so much as they could bring the world crashing down by winning the ACC. That leaves us with 2-3 spots for 7 teams.

Let’s start by eliminating one team: Texas. Yes, they have the second best win in the land (behind Indiana going into Eugene). Yes, they have some nice wins to pair with it over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. However, they have some ugly wins over non-bowling Kentucky and Mississippi State. And a disgusting loss to Florida (when they still had their head coach). They only have 3 wins over bowl-eligible teams. No way this resume deserves the CFP.

Next, Vanderbilt. Diego Pavia alone should be enough for consideration. However, wins over the three teams behind them in the standings are the only highlights. They do own 4 wins over bowl-eligible teams, so that’s something. Next.

Miami has that hat-hanging win over Notre Dame from the first week. They have a resounding win over USF that looked really solid until a few weeks ago. And they just put a feather in their cap with a thrashing of Pittsburgh on the road. BUT, they also lost to a Louisville team who finished .500 in conference and an SMU squad who lost on the road to Cal to squander their chance at the ACC title. Miami has 4 wins over bowling teams. If Duke vacates their spot in the CFP, maybe Miami could represent the conference?

The Fighting Irish have rattled off 10 wins in a row. Only three other schools can say that (OSU, Indiana, and JMU). They have a win over USC, Navy, and Pitt. And no bad losses. The eye test hasn’t even been used on them since an ugly start to the Boston College game because of how dominant they have been. In the four games since, the Irish have put up 49, 37, 70, and 49. They have allowed 20 once. Sure, they couldn’t help that Boise State was on a down year after losing Jeanty, but they still cruised to a 21 point victory. They have 5 wins over bowl eligible teams. Give these guys a spot.

BYU has 6 wins against bowl-eligible squads (4 on the road). They will face Texas Tech in a rematch, but, even without that win, I think they would provide a better CFP game than OU or Miami. Give them the 9 spot at least.

Oklahoma owns a win over an SEC championship contender. That’s a nice feather. And overall, they have 5 wins over bowl-eligible schools. But, they did lose to Texas (and looked bad doing it). I think their ceiling is the 10th seed, but with the resumes around them, I could see them being the first team left out.

Ole Miss could own a win over the American champion. Their only loss is to the likely SEC champion Bulldogs. They beat Oklahoma on the road. However, the Rebs also own the SEC’s lowest SOS. Their head coach decided to jump ship to save a sinking vessel rather than continue piloting a successful voyage. I’m sure they won’t fall this far, but I would give them the 9th or 10th spot, rather than a home game.

Conference Championships

ACC– I refuse to even look up the math used for these ACC tiebreakers, but let’s just assume it was done by a monkey pulling a blue banana out of a hat and call it good. Duke will face Virginia, and if I was the Conference chair for the ACC, I’d be telling the Blue Devils to just roll over.

American– Completely robbed the conference of the best rematch they could have hoped for, instead awarding Tulane for playing an easy conference slate. Navy played the 67th ranked SOS while Tulane played the 78th. Navy lost to 10-2 Notre Dame and 11-1 North Texas. Tulane lost to 11-1 Ole Miss and 6-6 UTSA. Navy has the 19th ranked SOR, Tulane has the 23rd. But, instead of having to do math, the American Conference just kowtows to the CFP committee rankings (a week before the final game of the year). Anyway, UNT will smash Tulane and go to the playoff.

Big 10– Undefeated versus undefeated. There can be only one. (Thanks Texas) The game will be in Indiana’s backyard, but just a short jaunt down the road from Columbus. Should be packed in Indy and rowdy. I think this one could really decide the CFP finalist. I’m taking my Buckeyes to roll.

Big 12– Texas Tech and BYU. 11-1 squads. Both looking like fun, havoc causing CFP contenders. One is probably guaranteed a spot (Tech) while the other needs to win in order to force the decision out of the committee’s hands. But, I think the Red Raiders can smell that bye and want it. Give me Texas Tech by a touchdown.

Conference USA– Kennesaw State takes on Jacksonville State. The Owls already went to Jacksonville once and lost. But, I think their offense takes the day and wills them to a win after forcing themselves into the championship game with a double OT victory over Liberty this past weekend.

MAC– Miami of Ohio will travel up north to take on Western Michigan. Ohio just dominated THAT state this past weekend, might as well make it two Saturdays in a row. Go Red Hawks!

Mountain West– Boise State has some unfinished business to settle and wants to get to a solid bowl game. UNLV wants revenge for their last trip to Boise. The Rebels have won four in a row, the Broncos only two. Give me that blue turf though. Boise by two scores.

SEC– Georgia v Alabama. Just like everyone predicted. Yet again. Every year since 2014, at least one of these schools has been in the championship game. This will be the fourth edition. Bama is 3-0. But I think that streak ends. The Dawgs get the job done and lock up a first round bye.

Sun Belt– James Madison versus Troy. This SHOULD be a cakewalk for the Dukes. But, if they get distracted by what could happen, the Trojans do have the ability to keep the game close. But, I don’t think they will. Dukes by 3 scores in an emphatic statement to the CFP committee.

CFP Prediction

This is just what I believe should happen, not what will. Because there is no way that Duke is beating Virginia. BUT, I still think JMU and UNT would give better games than UVA. And, as good as Ole Miss might, maybe have been with Lane, I wouldn’t be against penalizing them for going into the playoff without their head coach.

Weekly Hypothetical

Duke wins the ACC title. UNT wins the American. Troy beats JMU. BYU beats Texas Tech. Do Troy (9-4) and UNT get in or would Duke (8-5) jump Troy? Does Texas Tech lose a Top-4 spot for losing in their conference championship while Oregon jumps in there without attending?