After an exciting weekend of college football, even though there were only 9 games, we finally have our CFP field set. Friday gave us a none-too-dominant performance from JMU on their way to a pretty final scoreboard. Tulane (who shouldn’t have been in the game anyway) got some massive help from the refs enroute to an American Conference Championship over UNT. Boise pulled off their third consecutive Mountain West Championship. And Kennesaw State survived a late rally by Jacksonville State to win their first FBS conference championship in only their second year at the D1 level.
Saturday brought a bit more chaos to the discussions in the committee room. Indiana upset Ohio State in one of the best defensive games this century. Georgia took belt to Alabama for revenge. Duke shocked Virginia and the ACC with a dominant performance until the last minute of regulation. Then they went on to win it in OT with a fourth and goal TD followed immediately by a fantastic interception to seal the deal. Texas Tech showed why they have a top ranked defense in a thrashing of BYU. And Western Michigan looked pretty comfortable beating Miami of Ohio to win their fifth MAC title in school history.
All of that got us to this:
Biggest snub
Notre Dame and BYU (obviously)
Let’s talk first about BYU. BYU got smacked by Texas Tech in an extra game. Alabama got smacked by Georgia in an extra game. North Texas rallied to make the American Championship a game in the second half. Ohio State lost a close game to the only undefeated team in the country. Virginia took Duke to OT in a game they looked destined to lose for most of it. Only four of those five teams dropped in the rankings. BYU, Ohio State, Virginia, and North Texas. Alabama gets to maintain their #9 ranking when they get embarrassed but BYU doesn’t maintain 11th? Strange.
Notre Dame was directly impacted by this lack of consistency. Not dropping Alabama (after raising them for an unknown reason on Tuesday) didn’t allow Notre Dame to move up in front of them, as they should have. Dropping BYU, conveniently, placed Miami right next to Notre Dame and the committee could finally not worry about anything but head-to-head. And, to be clear, I don’t hold that against the committee. I just find it extremely disingenuous for them to decide at the last minute this suddenly got changed.
And, sure, the rankings are, supposedly, refreshed every time they do them and they start from scratch. But, then why bother releasing any ranking before the selection show? NCAA basketball Selection Sunday is the first time we see the rankings used by the actual bracket. There’s no partial bracket reveal five weeks before the end of the season. That makes sense. The committee should be meeting and discussing these teams, but what’s the point of the rankings if they mean nothing and aren’t honored? What did Miami or Notre Dame do since Tuesday to change their resumes? Other than Notre Dame adding a win over a conference champion (Boise State).
11 cases
#12 James Madison
It’s a tough draw to go into Eugene for the first round. It’ll likely be cold and wet. But, the Ducks have lost at home once this year already. And they did so by throwing two key picks late and not having enough offense to overcome the stout defense played by the Hoosiers. Sure, the Dukes were held to 14 points against Louisville, but they have an offense that can really turn on the jets and keep up with most. And the defense is stout. They haven’t allowed more than 28 all season and rank second in yards allowed per game and rushing yards per game. The Dukes are top 10 in sacks per game.
A sloppy game that turns on big plays could play to the Dukes.
A punter’s chance at the upset
#11 Tulane
Tulane already went to Mississippi and got smacked around. So, hypothetically, they know what not to do this time around. Since that game, the Green Wave have put up 24+ while going 8-1. The defense looked solid against UNT, pouncing on mistakes and the offense made the Mean Green pay for them. If Retzlaff can play mistake free and the rushing attack can be balanced, Tulane could turn the tables on Ole Miss.
But, the game is a home game for the Rebels and feels like a steep climb for the Wave. I give them a dark horse chance at pulling off the revenge.
#10 Miami
Since dropping their second game of the season at SMU, Miami has rattled off 4 straight, impressive wins. Carson Beck has even looked the part, throwing for 1,125 yards and 11 TDs to one interception while taking five sacks. If that Beck shows up, the Aggies could be in serious trouble. However, in both losses, Beck threw multiple interceptions (6 combined).
But, the real story will be how the defense handles themselves. They manhandled Pitt on the road in their latest game and, as many have pointed out, limited the best player in college football to open up the season. During their four game run, they haven’t allowed more than 17 points and twice held opponents to 7 (including Pitt).
If Beck can limit turnovers, the Canes can play with anyone. Give me the Canes to take the first round matchup.
#9 Alabama
I refuse to play this one out because they are, by far, the least deserving team in the field.
What they stole from us:
#8 Oklahoma
Oklahoma embarrassed Alabama at their house last time these two met. Before that, the Sooners thrashed the Tide last season in Bama’s last trip to Norman. Maybe Venables just has the Tide’s number?
But, as great as their defense has been, how good can their offense be? At Tennessee, the Sooners put up 33 points. In Tuscaloosa, 23. And in the past two home games? 17 each. Now, if the defense continues to bully everyone into submission, 17 will win you games. But if they have an off day (like that Ole Miss game), the Sooners could be gone sooner than they want.
I expect a repeat since Bama can’t find an offense.
#7 Texas A&M
I don’t trust A&M’s offense or defense. In their past two FBS games, the defense allowed 33 points in the first half and 24 second half points. The offense did look great in that second half comeback against the Gamecocks, but was stymied throughout the biggest game of the year in Austin. And the Aggies have committed 6 turnovers in those two games while forcing 1. That’s not a comforting ratio for anyone. This is a very different team than the one that showed up in South Bend to steal a win (and bid) from the Irish.
Maybe they will surprise me, but I don’t see the Aggies surviving this first round.
#6 Ole Miss
Ole Miss looked great against OU. But got outmatched by the team they might see in the second round. And that’ll be the question facing these Rebels when Tulane comes to town for revenge. Which team shows up. Especially without Kiffin.
Will Charlie Weis be able to bring the same offensive performance from Trinidad Chambliss that we’ve seen most of the season? Will Pete Golding, the former DC, bring his defense up to snuff? Luckily, for the Rebs, they will be facing the defense with the efficiency rating just above them in their first round. While, all other teams rank in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, the Green Wave and Rebels rank 52nd and 53rd, respectively. And we know the Rebels can put up points. They’ve put up 30+ in 6 straight games and 10 of 12 all season.
Give me Ole Miss to get destroyed by Georgia in the second round.
#5 Oregon
Oregon gets one of the best spots possible. They get a home game in Eugene against G5 JMU. And, as we all remember, the teams with home field advantage were pretty good last year. And after toppling Penn State, the Ducks were forgotten about for months. They followed that win up with a lackluster performance against Indiana. Although the Ducks have since beaten Iowa, USC, and Washington, few have given them much credit on the national scene.
But that’s great for Dan Lanning’s team. They can lean on Dante Moore and Co. to light up the scoreboard and play clean football. Since the Indiana loss, Moore has thrown for 1,337 yards and 11 touchdowns.
I’ll take the Ducks to take care of business against JMU, but then run into a buzzsaw defense in Texas Tech.
#4 Texas Tech
The Red Raiders looked scary good against BYU, after the Cougars first drive. Bear Bachmeier was clearly feeling something in that ankle from the start of their second drive. And Tech pounced on his mistakes. Which is exactly what championship caliber teams do.
Texas Tech has not allowed a single opponent to score more than 26 points all year. They also haven’t been held under 20 themselves. In fact, they lead the field (and were third nationally) in PPG at 42.5. So, in a matchup with Oregon, who ranks 9th in PPG, in the Orange Bowl, the tell tale will be how their defense stacks up. And they do it really well.
The Red Raiders average game score? 42.5-10.9. That’s a 31.6 point spread. The semi final matchup against Indiana could be wild. But give me the Red Raiders to hunt the Ducks out of Miami.
#3 Georgia
Georgia is fresh off putting belt to ass on Alabama in a revenge game. And that comes on the heels of looking rather pedestrian against Georgia Tech in the prior week. So, were the Bulldogs looking ahead to the possibility (remember, the only reason Georgia made it at all was because Texas beat A&M) of a rematch? Or, did they simply expose flaws in Alabama’s injured core?
A rematch with Ole Miss should be a good litmus test. In the first matchup, Georgia came back with a vengeance in the 4th quarter, scoring 17 unanswered points. They controlled the ball for 16 of the last 19 minutes of the game. The defense limited Ole Miss to 88 yards on the ground, while their own running game put up 221. And Stockton looked almost perfect completing 26 passes for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns and added a touchdown on the ground.
Will it be the same if they can get past Ole Miss? They’d likely face the next team on this list. And I don’t know if Ohio State will get burned that badly. I trust the Dogs to make it to the semis but no further.
#2 Ohio State
Ohio State’s defense is still elite. That’s why they only dropped to 2. Sayin and Day have a few weeks to try to get their mojo back, but the last time the Buckeyes lost 13-10? They went on to sweep the CFP. A second round matchup against the winner of Miami and Texas A&M should be a cake walk, think the Michigan game, for these Buckeyes. Then Georgia in the semis. That should be a great matchup with two outstanding defenses and explosive offenses. If Ohio State wants to reach the National Championship, it will be on Sayin to get back to reliably utilizing the whole field and all of his weapons. Indiana did such a good job disguising coverage that he looked overwhelmed from the start.
Give me the Buckeyes to rematch with Indy.
#1 Indiana
Defense wins Championships. It won the Big 12. It won the SEC. And it won the Big 10. Indiana, as the one seed, will likely face 3 of the best defenses in the country in back-to-back-to-back games if they want to make a National Title run. First up, Oklahoma. The Hoosiers will have had rest. And they get to play in a historically pro-Big 10 arena at the Rose Bowl. Mendoza may or may not win the Heisman. But, he is still a fantastic leader for this team. They ran the table, and did it winning blow outs (6 games 50+ points), slugfests (Iowa and OSU), and facing intense adversity (Eugene and Happy Valley). These guys know what it takes to win. They believe they can do it, even if it requires some incredible acrobatics to do so.
My heart tells me Ohio State back-to-back, but watching film, it’s tough to pick against the Hoosiers.
Prediction
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